2009 For you

This seems to be the season for 2009 predictions, so for the first time I decided to put mine out there.

I'll start with the Economics first.

1: S&P500 will print a 5-handle this year. After a spring rally, the downtrend should resume in earnest in the summer.
2: SENSEX will touch 4000, the timing should be similar to the S&P's low.
3: This year people will stop talking about recession and downturn. They'll start talking about a depression instead.
4: US unemployment (official) figures will touch 10%.
5: There will be a currency crisis, but unlike most people I do not think the US$ will collapse (at least not this year). I think the currency crisis will be in Euroland or with the GBP.
6: India's IT industry will end 2009 in a much worse state than 2008. I fully expect the top 10 companies to layoff 50% of their staff.
7: Foreclosure and Repossession will make their appearance in general desi vocabulary.

Domestic (India) Politics.

1: No national party will win a clear majority. There will be a coalition government (and I'll hedge my bets here) probably led by the Congress and supported by a host of ne'er-do-wells.
2: Mayawati will NOT be the next Prime Minister. But she could very well be in the Union Cabinet.
3: Rahul Gandhi will NOT be the next Prime Minister. I suspect he will not have a very public role in the next government either.
4: Amar Singh and Mulayam will be marginalized by the congress in favor of Mayawati.
5: NCP will fare badly in Maharashtra. There will be a 3 way-split between the NCP, Congress and BJP-SS in Maharashtra. MNS will make its way to Parliament.

US Politics

1: Obama will lose his way and from the great "black" hope he will become one of many who over-promised and under-delivered.
2: There will be an undercurrent of rising resentment against the government. While nothing will be overt but 2010 might be the year that the American system of government changed to something else.

International Affairs

1: Pakistan will collapse, the mullahs supported by the Army will take over the government. Pakistani society will enter the dark ages.
2: Iraq will be peaceful, Palestine will not be.
3: The Indian Army will be overtly deployed in Afghanistan. First as advisors and then slowly to replace the NATO and US forces who will withdraw by year-end.
4: 2009 will NOT see an overt conflict between nation-states in South Asia, but 2010 will be another matter.

I'll come back same time, next year and see how I did.